Nature's Past New Year Shows and Forecast

2011 is coming to an end as New Year's Eve approaches and shortly after the infamous 2012 begins.  Your 2012 forecast is that everything you have seen about the world ending is true.  Just kidding!  Even though the Mayan calender ends on 2012 it is unlikely that the world would end.  What we can look at is how other years have ended and began.  Going all the way back to 1947 where the 1947 New Year's Eve Tornado Outbreak occured.  A year that ones during that time will never forget for the end of 1947 and the beginning of 1948 where 11 tornadoes tore through the Southern U.S. and unfortunately taking 256 lives from entering 1948.  On the bright side, 20 people were spared with injuries to live to tell of the great devastation.  Now moving to a much more recent tornadic event in 2010 when the 2010 New Year's Eve Tornado Outbreak occured in Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois from Dec. 31 to Jan 1.  As many as 36 tornadoes touched down with the strongest being an EF3.  Unfortunately, 9 lives were lost from this outbreak, but due to the vast advancements on tornado warnings and preparation ONLY 9 lives were lost and not large numbers like in 1947.

Now you are probably expecting a list of blizzards on New Year's Eve or New Year's Day.  Well, as far as recorded history shows there hasn't been any and the same thing goes for significant Nor'easters, but tropical systems is another story.  None have made landfall during this time here in the U.S., but it is always good to notify that hurricanes and tropical storms do exist around that time of the year.  Back in 1954, a storm in the Caribbean Sea developed and eventually became a hurricane known as Hurricane Alice and passed over the Leeward Islands.  It developed on Dec. 30, 1954 and died of on Jan. 6, 1955.  Almost exactly 51 years later another storm developed on nearly the same day as Hurricane Alice did.  During the historic and memorable 2005 season a storm developed on Dec. 29, 2005 and developed into Tropical Storm Zeta, the 30th named storm of that season which is record for the most tropical cyclones in a hurricane season on record.  Tropical Storm Zeta caused no damage to islands as it was a fish storm.  It eventually died off on Jan. 6, 2006.

It is known that New Year's Eve and New Year's Day are not really recognized as a holiday where great weather events occur, but as you have noticed anything is possible regardless of what time of the year it is.  What kind of weather will New York City have when the ball drops to end 2011 and begin 2012?  It is a far forecast, but for those who want to travel to Manhattan and stand in Time Square to see the beautiful 11,875 pound, lighted, crystal ball to drop the weather won't be too bad.  So far it is looking to be in the upper 30's when the ball drops at midnight with partly cloudy skies and winds coming from the NW at around 5 mph.  New York City isn't the only location in the U.S. that is dropping something though.  I have read of foods, fruits, musical instruments, leaves, shoes, disco balls, animals, flowers, jugs, sea creatures, beach balls, and many, many more things to drop at midnight in a number of locations around the U.S.  If you want to know more about it and what they are, go to the following link and find out.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_objects_dropped_on_New_Year's_Eve

The Spirit of Christmas Past

A Merry Christmas to everyone of all nationalities and all locations.  Some of us had a beautiful white Christmas with falling snow and/or snow on the ground and some of us didn't, but since this year what other sort of weather has people encountered for Christmas?  Not in any order of year, but in type of events that will be mentioned of the spirits of Christmas past.  Christmas in 1982 is known as the Christmas 1982 Tornado Outbreak for people in the Central-Southeastern U.S. as a system spawned 18 tornadoes from Dec. 23-25 with 3 lives lost.  Luckily, tornadic events are not very common around Christmas time, but blizzard events are a little more common.  The North American Blizzard of 1947 sprawled snow all over the Northeast Region of the U.S. dropping as much as 26 inches of snow in Manhattan at Central Park.  Snow started falling on Dec. 25 and steadily and silently fell through Dec. 26.  As harmless as it sounds it left devastation behind by taking away 77 lives.  A much more recent blizzard event was the December 2010 North American Blizzard.  Considered as a historic blizzard dropped as much as 34 inches of snow in and around New Jersey.  It affected the entire Atlantic Coastline with showers and thunderstorms in Florida to blizzard conditions in the Northeast.  This was one of a few storms that had the rare phenomena of thunder snow in it.  Was Jim Cantore there I'm not sure, but if he was he probably would have reacted like he did in early 2011 when he experienced it in Chicago. 

Amongst the nearly 3 feet of snow that was dropped and the howling winds that came along with it, this blizzard caused a pretty penny worth of damage rounding to $60 million and left behind 7 to perish.  It originated on Dec. 22 and didn't finish causing havoc for the U.S. until the 29th.  Other notable storms was the Christmas 1994 Nor'easter that formed Dec. 22 and ended on the 26th.  No snow or ice was reported from this storm, but it intensified rapidly to an amazing 970mb storm creating problems from the Southeast to the New England area.  Southeast experienced heavy rainfall with over 5 inches of rainfall and windy conditions along the Atlantic Coastline causing massive beach erosion from the Carolinas to Massachusetts.  More than $20 million of damage was caused by it and 2 lives were lost, but luckily no other lives were taken.

This is a list of some of the most memorable weather events on Christmas.  As weather recording has only be going on for abour 150 years for most places a lot of events cannot be taken into account and ones that were small but leaving big impacts on families were included either as they hard to track down.  I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas regardless of where you are.

City Forecast Discussion: Erie, Pennsylvania

A city that sits in the Northeast right on Lake Erie is the beautiful city of Erie.  A peaceful city with an old-fashion sense to it with beautiful country sides and beautiful neighborhoods.  Too bad the weather cannot be explained the same way.  Erie is as tricky as Miami and Juneau for forecasting since it sits right next to a body of water.  Every factor in the air plays an important role in determining how warm, cool, windy, dry, or wet it will be.  The temperatures for the city is highly dependent on the wind.  An important thing to keep in mind for Erie is that the highest sustained wind for each day is rather uncommon to go below 10 mph.  If the wind blows from the land to Erie it will warm up and cool off as the rest of the land warms and cools.  When the wind does this it has been noticed that Erie will reach its warmest and coolest days.  If the wind blows from Lake Erie then its a different animal.  Erie will have more of a small temperature change with winds blowing from the lake since before winter really kicks in it stays unfrozen.  From experience, there was a day where the high reached 41 and the low was 38 with the wind coming off the water that entire day.  That is only a 3 degree temperature change for an entire day.  Quite crazy.  Clouds were in the area, but the clouds primarily affect the temperature of the city if the wind is coming from the land blowing towards Erie.  Clouds have little affect when the wind is from the lake.

Precipitation amount is just as challenging as the high and low for Erie.  It boils down to how far north or south the low pressure system is, how cold the air is, and the direction it is moving with respect to wind.  Because of Erie's location it typically gets a piece of most systems that near it, but sometimes a low pressure system may not be near it and they will still receive rain or snow.  How is that?  An interesting phenomenan called lake effect.  It can be in the form of rain or snow, but most of the time it will be in the form of snow.  Snow is a funny and tricky form of precip to forecast for.  Not really in its form, but how much will fall and converting it to liquid.  Typically, you can use a 1:10 ratio meaning for every 1 inch of liquid water there will be 10 inches of snow and vice versa.  This however does not always follow through as it can be as little as 1:5 or as much as 1:50, figuratively speaking.  If this isn't tricky enough then keep in mind that if there were lake effect snow or rain it doesn't mean it will fall over Erie.

Finally, the wind is always hard to predict no matter what city you are in, but Erie is a little different.  Wind from bouys in the lake can be as high as 30 to 40 mph sustained, but just on land it could be 10 to 20 mph all due to friction.  The Erie International Airport is very close to Lake Erie, but there is still enough land to create enough friction with the wind to slow it down some.  For the short period of time that Erie was forecasted for the wind ranged from 13 to 22 mph depending upon how tight of a pressure gradient there is and whether the wind is coming off the water or land.

Overall, very tricky forecast city with the 2 weeks spent on it which allows for high respect for the meteorologists forecasting for the area.  Now Christmas break is in session and will have a resting period until the next forecast city starts in late January.  Here is a hint: It is known as The Big Easy and not located in any county, but another kind of geographic subdivision of a state; well known for a French phrase that occurs on a Tuesday every year before lent starts; and well known for a very famous street that has the same name as a type of whiskey.

Thanksgiving and It's Weather Past

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.  Today in 2011 marks the 390th anniversary of celebrating Thanksgiving here in the United States.  This Thanksgiving has started out to be a fantastic day to celebrate around the United States, but it hasn't always been that way.  One memorable Thanksgiving event was all the way back in 1898 on November 26.  There were two strong low pressure systems that combined and created a terrible winter storm in the New England region.  The amount of snow that accumulated isn't well known, but the death tragedy was high in numbers.  A completely opposite event occured in 1922 on November 25th and 26th where there was a tornado outbreak in the southern U.S. known as the Late-November 1926 Tornado Outbreak.  There were an estimated 47 tornadoes reported that caused devastating damage and changed the lives of thousands of people as some perished and some were injured.  In 1950, the eastern U.S. experienced one of the worst winter storms in history on November 24th and 25th.  Some places received as much snow as 30 inches with winds gusting over 100 mph!  On the other side of the U.S. in 1983 there was a damaging windstorm that spand from November 10th to the 24th.  Wind gusts as high as 63 mph in some areas and downed power lines and trees causing widespread power outage for Thanksgiving in the Pacific Northwest part of the U.S.  The next day on the 25th in the same year a memorable storm produced more than 20 inches of snow in Colorado and began an unusual and unique stretch of day to day snow until January 27th, 1984.  In 1993, Texas experienced an unforgetable Thanksgiving Day not primarily because of the type of weather, but because of a sports event.  The Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins played at the Texas Stadium with below freezing temperatures and sleet.  Due to a slip of a Cowboys player the Dolphins claimed victor for the game.  In 1994, a tornado outbreak sparked the day after Thanksgiving on November 27th when 19 tornadoes occured in the Southeastern portion of the United States known as 1994 Thanksgiving Weekend Tornado Outbreak.  The strongest tornado was an F3, unfortunately 6 people lost their lives.  On a brighter note, that is all that lost their lives on that day.  Another post-Thanksgiving tornado outbreak was the Arkansas-Mississippi-Alabama Tornado Outbreak when 67 tornadoes spawned in the 3 states that resulted in some loss of life with the strongest being three F4 tornadoes.  In 2005, the 'Blizzard of 2005" tracked as much as 20 inches of snow and 2 inches of ice in certain places in South Dakota and Minnesota.  No loss of life, but tens of thousands of people were left without power on Thanksgiving.  To finish up the list is a pre-Thanksgiving weather event that caused coastal flooding and damaging winds to people in the New England region.  At the same time, some of the earliest recorded snow along the Atlantic coast of Georgia and South Carolina.

These are only some of the memorable weather events that could be found without deep research.  Since Thanksgiving has been celebrated for almost 400 years it's hard to keep track of every event that occured.  One thing is for sure though.  The weather that was experience on the first day Thanksgiving was celebrated is nearly impecable to what it looks like now in the U.S.  When the English settlers and Wampanoag Indians gathered for Thanksgiving they enjoyed 3 straight days of nice weather which was perfect since their Thanksgiving feast lasted that long.  Look at the current radar for the entire United States.


Besides parts of California, Western Washington, and a some patches of snow in Oregon, Idaho, and Montana and spoty showers in Southern Florida this could look fairly identical to what was experienced 390 years ago.  Expect most of the places with no precipitation around them today to persist for almost 3 days.  Happy Thanksgiving!!

If you would like to look at some of these events in more detail visit this website.  http://www.earthgauge.net/wp-content/EG_Thanksgiving%20Weather.pdf

City Forecast Discussion: Juneau, Alaska

One of the most beautiful cities due to is location near 5,000 ft mountains, glaciers, and beautiful cool Alaskan waters.  The most northern city in the forecast contest was, as you can guess, the hardest to forecast for.  It was one of those cities that everything possible that has been mentioned in previous cities played a factor in temperatures, wind, and precipitation and at the same time those things didn't play a factor.  The image above shows downtown Juneau which is a little ways away from the airport which is at the foot of the distant mountains in the background.

Starting off with the temperatures, they typically don't vary from day to day with stable conditions in Juneau.  A typical range from the high and low is 5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit.  When low pressures and fronts are passing through the area then all bets are off.  Winds play a big factor because if the are from the any direction from the NE to the E then the winds are coming down the mountains which would result in some warming of the air, but due to the mountains being covered in snow and a glacier to the north of the airport that just keeps temperatures rather steady.  If winds come from a westerly direction then they are coming off water that is sitting around the low to mid 40's.  Winds from the south come off a mountain over water and then onto land.  Needless to say when trying to contribute direction of wind and temperature with Juneau it's just too hard to figure out.  Clouds have a big factor, but like wind it's not a good indicator of how much it will warm or cool.  One night it was clear with snow on the ground and you would think the temperature would drop with calm conditions.  Well, the temperature slowly fell throughout the night with no mixing of the air.  Strange huh?

Wind is a whole different story.  Juneau is known to have very gusty winds and its reputation still holds, but trying to forecast how high it will get is nearly impossible.  Stations around the Juneau International Airport would gust to 40 or 50 mph and the airport could get winds of 12 or 13 mph and the opposite can happen too.  The terrain has a lot to deal with that, but how can you see that to forecast it is hard.  Finally, precipitation is just as difficult as the other things.  Due to some mountains reaching as high as 3,000 to 4,000 feet south of the airport and a number of large high elevated islands west of it, it really makes a huge impact on how much precipitation falls.  Another thing is the precipitation, at this time of year, is typically a mix of rain and snow and accumulates very slowly if any when it does that.

With all of this in mind and keeping in mind that some models have a hard time forecasting for Juneau since it rests on the outskirts of their range, it is truly a diffucult city to forecast whether you live there all your life or have never set foot in the city.  Fortunately, forecasting for this city is done and now on a break before the next forecast city starts.  This city is primarily known as either The Flagship City or The Gem City and rests on one the five Great Lakes.

City Forecast Discussion: Dayton, Ohio

The city of Dayton, OH is a big city with an interesting history to it.  Weather plays a big role in that history as much as anything else does.  Forecasting for this city was rather challenging.  It may not seem like it since there are not any local effects such as mountains, bodies of water, or valleys.  The only thing that is left to affect the city is larger scale effects such as clouds and fronts.  The main determining factor for the temperatures is the wind.  You might think that the sky conditions would cause some variability in the city and it does to a point.  The speed and direction of the wind was such a key factor that it literally determined your high and low more than clouds did.  If winds were light in any direction then it practically had little to no effects on the temperature.  If winds reached and exceeded 6 or 7 mph then the direction was key on how warm or how cool it would make the city.  To add on to the challenge of Dayton is its location.  It is in a prime spot to be affected by mid-latitude systems.  Most fronts that drive across the Eastern U.S. will impact Dayton whether it receives a lot of rain or only a little.

The next forecast city is fair away from this city and much further north.  It is the capital of The Last Frontier state that has the longest shoreline than any other state of the U.S. and this state holds Mount McKinley, the highest mountain in the U.S.

City Forecast Discussion: Riverton, Wyoming

The beautiful and high city of Riverton, WY is a small city of over 10,000 people has the delicate appearance of a peaceful, tranquil city.  However, the weather is anything but the appearance of the city.  If meteorologists thought forecasting for Miami, FL was difficult then they should be introduced to this city that ranges from around 4,500 feet in the city to 5,500 feet at the airport.  So, what makes this city so difficult?  One word, wind.  Wind played a factor for Miami as well, but not to the magnitude of Riverton.  Why wind plays a big roll is because of the terrain.  To the west and southwest of the city is the states highest mountain range reaching over 10,000 feet.  To the north is a high plateau that is around 7,000 feet and to the east the elevation declines as it gradually slants down into The Great Plains.  What does this mean for the wind?  Good question.  If a wind blows from the west or southwest then it will warm rapidly warm the city up.  If the wind blows from the north it gradually warms the city up.  If a wind from the east occurs then it would cool the city down or keep the temperature from warming much if any.  Do clouds make a factor when the wind is blowing?  From the two week experience in forecasting for the city clouds will not make a difference in how high the temp goes when the wind is warming it up.  Overall, another difficult city with lots of learning experiences to hold on to for future forecasting cities and future forecasts.

The next city that is currently being forecasted for is known as The Gem City with the motto of "Birthplace of Aviation".  Can you guess what it is?