City Forecast Discussion: Providence, RI

The second city of the national forecast contest took us to the capital of the smallest state in the United States, Rhode Island.  Providence was a great and unique experience as all forecast cities have been so far.  The precise spot that was forecast for in Providence was at T. F. Green State Airport which The Rolling Stones were arrested at in 1972.  That was a little history for you.  Now back to the challenges in forecasting for it.  One of the biggest influences was the direction of wind.  If the winds came from a westerly or northerly direction it heated or cooled with respect to the rest of the land.  However, if the winds came from the south or east then the temperature was influence by the temperature of either the Greenwich Bay to the south or the Providence River/Narragansett Bay.  Both bodies of water had a temperature ranging from 40 to 45 degrees Fahrenheit.  This would keep the airport cool during the days and warm at night if winds were strong enough.  Also, the winds had a tendency to be strong at times due to them being next to the bays because of less friction on the wind than winds coming from Connecticut or Massachusetts.

Clouds always play a factor in any cities high and low and even wind as the fewer the clouds the warmer it gets and the stronger the winds can be if the land is much warmer than the bays.  The more clouds the less the temperature could warm and the calmer the winds are since average temperature over land is close to the body of water.  If a front comes through with really cold air behind it that's a different story, you will have stronger winds there because of temperature differences.  Storms normally come from the southeast about this time of the year, but in a whole year they can come from the southeast, west, and even from the east.  This year has been warmer than normal for a lot of places which allowed for more rain than snow this year.  Providence was effected by this, but still got some snow and snow really makes forecasting for a high and low difficult due to various warming and cooling processes it can do.  Forecasting snowfall amounts is always a challenge because it really depends on how much melting occurs or how cold it is.

Now that Providence is done the forecast contest has moved to another city which is far more challenging than Providence due to a number of local effects, but the biggest one of them all is mountains.  This city's nickname is The Duke City, known world wide for its International Balloon Fiesta, and is the largest city of one of the states of the Four Corners.

City Forecast Discussion: New Orleans, LA

The beautiful city of New Orleans, well known for Mardi Gras, Bourbon Street, and Audubon Zoo.  Also, well known from it huge impact from Hurricane Katrina.  Amongst tropical system impacts, day to day basis weather forecasts are not as easy as it may seem for a city in a bowl.  The temperatures are highly influenced by both the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain and if the wind is blowing off either body of water.  If the water is blowing off either body of water it will keep temperatures warm during the day and at night.  However, if the water is blowing too strong off Lake Pontchartrain then the water temperature won't affect the air temperature very much.  As far as precipitation goes, it's a lot like Miami, FL with the exception of being affected by two sea breezes.  At this time of the year sea breezes were not much of a factor as fronts were.  Even with fronts it was just a matter of it rained over your location or not and the amount varied from place to place.

Challenging city for forecasting as wind plays a huge factor in a number of things and the two bodies of water play a very important role as well.  The next city is familiar with cold winters and a lot of snow.  It is known as the Beehive of Industry and the Creative Capital.  Located in the heart of The Ocean State.  Can you guess what it is?

Exciting Start to 2012

January 2012 is already starting off with a bang.  So far there has been 690 storm reports for January this year which includes 110 tornado reports, 469 wind reports, and 111 hail reports.  Of those tornado reports at least 82 of them are official tornado touchdowns.  Here are a few images of some of the most active days in January from SPC storms reports: 






Pretty fascinating to have such an active month in the middle of winter, but how does that add up to 2011 which ones one of the most active severe weather years in history.  The number of storm reports for January 2011 are 101 which including 10 tornado reports, 79 wind reports, 12 hail reports.  Of those tornado reports at least 1 is official with the possibility of adding about 3 or 4 more from a small Florida outbreak.  When doing a comparison between January 2011 to January 2012 there have been almost 7 times more storm reports for January 2012 than January 2011.

So, is this a precursor of an active year like 2011 or maybe more active?  Hard to say right now and far too early to tell, but it is noticeable that this year is starting off much warmer than last year with shots of cold air hitting the Southeast region.  February is starting off active like January so we shall see how things go.