2012 Halloween Storm, Perfect or Not

The big story this year around Halloween is Hurricane Sandy and whether it will become the next "Perfect Storm".

There has been a couple of names being thrown around for the situation of Hurricane Sandy such as "Frankenstorm" and the next "Perfect Storm".  "Frankenstorm" is just wrong to begin with and probably comes from one of two things, Halloween is around the corner or that it is and will continue to be a huge storm.  Either way, if "Snowmageddon", "Snowpocalypse", or any other word with "snow" in front of it can't be used then neither should "Frankenstorm".  Now the next "Perfect Storm" as compared to the 1991 Perfect Storm, that is a lot more realistic.

In 1991, a storm developed into something highly unusual and was deemed as "The Perfect Storm".  One question remains, what is the "perfect storm"?  Well, there are not any specific requirements or qualifications dubbed by any meteorological organization that would make a storm "the perfect storm".  So, how did it come up?  The name was given to the storm system in 1991 by the Boston NWS forecaster Robert Case and the author of the book "The Perfect Storm" Sebastian Junger.  Case described the situation of the storm as the "perfect situation" based upon 3 weather-related phenomenons that came together to develop the 1991 Perfect Storm.  These phenomenons were warm air from a low-pressure system, a flow of cool and dry air generated by a high-pressure, and tropical moisture provided by Hurricane Grace.  This started the topic of naming the storm "The Perfect Storm".

Does that mean that it could be the only "perfect storm"?  Will this be the end of the quotes?  Nope and not quite.  The storm in 1991 was called the "perfect storm" because it was an event where a rare combination of circumstances that aggravated a situation drastically.  It could also be described as a phenomenon that happens when such a confluence of phenomenons that result in an event of unusual magnitude.  Because of those definitions, it can be called a perfect storm.  By that definition, what we are forecast to experience in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the U.S. is considered a "Perfect Storm".  Also, if you want to look into other storms, the April 27th tornado outbreak can be considered as a "Perfect Storm" as a number of factors came together to develop a one of a kind severe weather event.

Now, the final match up!
 VS 

Who will cause the worst damage?  Sandy from Grease or Grace from Will and Grace.  Hard to say for those two, but the outcome of Hurricane Grace in the 1991 Perfect Storm and what may become of Hurricane Sandy we will see after a few a days.  For right now let's do a comparison.  Here was the setup for the 1991 Perfect Storm.

Shortly after the time the observations were taken for this map, the low to the far right deepened to a 972 mb low with a high-pressure over the Montana/Dakotas region that was 1044 mb and another high-pressure to the north of the low that was 1041 mb.  The pressure difference between them was around 70 mb from the one to the north and the one to the west, but the one to the north had the largest pressure gradient which resulted in the strongest winds and highest waves which is what caused all the damage in the Nova Scotia area as well as a number of ships such as the Andrea Gail.  Now what about the setup for the storm that's going on right now.

Hurricane Sandy is out off of the North Carolina coast with a pressure of 951 mb and to the west in The Great Plains is a high-pressure of 1030 mb.  That's a pressure difference of nearly 80 mb.  So far, this storm isn't done and will be heading directly into the Mid-Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast.  This storm also has the same relative ingredients that made the storm in 1991 very notorious.  Sandy is a hurricane with moisture and a source of heat from warm waters along the Atlantic Coastline, a powerful cold front to the west with significant dry air, and a high pressure system.  So will this be another storm to be deemed as another "Perfect Storm" like they did 21 years ago or will the NWS eventually stop calling it Sandy and start calling it Athena in their latest attempt to name winter storms?  Right now, the answer is unknown, but as Sandy continues to move north and then northwest with its very low-pressure we will see what they do with it.

Weather Wonder Wednesday: George and Icy Hot

September 19th holds a colorful history to it in the world of weather.  Everything ranging from hurricanes to blizzards.  One powerful storm was this guy.


Not exactly him, but Hurricane George in 1947 did have quite a punch.  Hurricane George hit Fort Lauderdale, FL Sept. 17th as a major hurricane with max sustained winds of 155 MPH.  Sept. 19, 1947, Hurricane George "eyes" New Orleans, LA as the eye passed over the city and impacting it with category 3 hurricane strength winds.

Taking a step back in the past.  Way back in the past.  In 1825 the largest forest fire in North America occurred on this day claiming over 3 million acres from Maine to New Brunswick, Canada.  Now that was a hot mess.

Fast-forwarding into more recent times, in 1983, the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the U.S. experienced a substantial heat wave where Reading, PA saw a high of 95 degrees!  Other "hot spot"s were New York (Central Park), NY; Wilmington, DE; and Baltimore, MD who saw a high of 94.  This same system caused a blizzard in the Rockies and even dropped the temperature to -6 in West Yellowstone, MT. To make it even more amazing, Denver, CO went from a sunny day at 86 degrees to a chilly 35 degrees with snow in 7 hours.

I guess the Chattem Co. was onto something.


Nine years later, a ferocious surge of cold air hit The Great Plains where Valentine, NE saw a low of 17 degrees!

Eyes In The Sky

Ever had a feeling you are being watched from space?  Well wipe that look off your face because your not.  Although, there is something that is constantly being watched from space.  The atmosphere!  Satellites that fly around Earth are constantly watching our atmosphere in many different ways allowing us to see things we wouldn't normally see with the naked eye from space or even from the ground.

In general, these satellites will look down in 3 different ways: visible, infrared, and water vapor.  Visible imagery from a satellite is like our human eye and shows us what it sees with the available sunlight.  Infrared imagery from a satellite shows us how things look with regards to its temperature.  Cooler objects are seen with cool colors while warmer objects are a warmer color.  Finally, Water vapor imagery shows us how things look with the available moisture in the air.  Here is an example of visible imagery:


Pretty huh?  You can see everything clearly even the shadows of the clouds!  Now an example of infrared imagery:


It's like looking at a rainbow isn't it?  Notice that Florida and the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean are like a burnt orange color.  That's because it is really warm.  Clouds, which are the greens and blues, are much colder so they are represented with cooler colors.  Finally, an example of water vapor imagery:


As mentioned earlier this shows moisture in the atmosphere.  The green and purple colors represent areas with moisture at a specific level in the atmosphere.  The oranges and reds represent really dry areas in the atmosphere.

So are the only things that satellites can show are areas of moisture, clouds, and temperature?  Oh no, they can show so much more!  Satellites can show areas of large wildfires.


Ash from active volcanoes.


Fronts and even sea breezes and land breezes.


And even areas of fog!


Looks like veins doesn't it?  This is actually valley fog.

These are only some of the examples of what satellites can see.  There are several other things that they can see that's just fun to find out on your own.  Here is a link that will show you focused areas to look at and even a national view of the U.S. using each of the 3 different kinds of imagery.  Enjoy!

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/

Weather Wonder Wednesday: Hurricane Donna and Gilbert

Another new segment that was just started today is Weather Wonder Wednesday where every Wednesday a little bit of facts and history will be told about that day.  September 12 holds a lot of weather history esp. with hurricanes and typhoons.  On this day, there has been an astounding number of 8 tropical systems who hold a memorable past.  One of the most memorable hurricanes that affected the United States was Hurricane Donna.


No, no, not Donna Summers.  Although, Hurricane Donna was a bad girl because she caused devastation across the entire East Coast.  Hurricane Donna will be forever known for two reasons.  One reason is that Hurricane Donna holds the record of retaining major hurricane status (category 3 or higher) for the longest period in the Atlantic Basin.  It maintained winds of 115 MPH or greater for 9 days.  The other reason why Hurricane Donna will forever be known is because it was the first hurricane to affect every point on the East Coast from Key West, FL to Caribou, ME.  Here is the track of Donna to show you its damaging path.
  

The next hurricane that made a huge impression on this day in history was Hurricane Gilbert.  Hurricane Gilbert held the record for the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin from 1988 to 2005 when Hurricane Wilma surpassed it.  Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb within 24 hours.  That's a 72 millibar pressure drop within a 24 hour period which estimates to be a 3 mb decrease per hour.  Now that's a bomb!  That's a bigger bomb drop than what Gilbert Gottfried's jokes on 9/11 and the Japan tsunami had on people shortly after the events happened.  Nonetheless, Gilbert Gottfried maintains a good comedic status and Hurricane Gilbert produced a maximum sustained winds of an amazing 185 MPH.

There is one other storm that holds a significant impact to the U.S., but not as recognized as the previous two, and that is Hurricane Frederick.  Frederick hit Dauphin Island, AL on this day 33 years ago with max sustained winds of 125 MPH causing tremendous damage and some casualties.  One of the largest and most significant structures it demolished that citizens of Dauphin Island will never forget was the Dauphin Island Bridge.


Residents of Dauphin Island and Mobile County, AL couldn't find words to describe this when they say it and learned that Dauphin Island residents were trapped, except by boat.

Hurricane Donna, Gilbert, and Frederick have all been retired to never be used again.

11 Years Later, Similar Weather

Today is the 11th anniversary of the World Trade Center attacks on the U.S.  No matter how many years pass by all Americans will remember this day for a number of reasons.  I will never forget my experience on this day.  I was nowhere near New York, but I still watched the whole event unfold in high school as I switched from class to class.  I remember one of my teachers being highly effected by the event because her husband was in New York City.

Seeing the two metallic birds crash into standing statues was life changing during a beautiful fall-like day took away from the actual weather that was going on.  What was the weather like during the whole event?  It actually was a lot like it is on its 11th anniversary.  Mostly clear with a few clouds and a northerly wind.  The temperatures are about the same except for JFK Airport where it is slightly warmer today than it was 11 years ago.  The dew point, however, is much lower today than it was 11 years ago.

Weather played a big part in the event because if it wasn't as beautiful as it was from the previous passage of a cold front then it most likely wouldn't have happened.

In honor of all the men and women who perished on this day 11 years ago and all those who fought to save several lives as the event unfolded and after all the damage was done, I dedicate this to you and those who were affected by it by losing family and friends.

Go outside today and enjoy this miraculous weather that has been blessed upon us in New York City and across the nation.

New York City Twisters, Rare Or Common?

We have always heard tornadoes spinning around in The Great Plains and either staying in open fields or hitting small, residential towns, but not so much hitting large, metropolis cities like lately.  Recently, tornadoes have hit Dallas/Fort Worth, TX this year; Atlanta, GA in 2008; Salt Lake City, UT in 1999; and even Miami, FL in 1998.  So tornadoes in large cities aren't unheard of, but fairly uncommon.  On Sept. 8, 2012, two tornadoes tore through the coastline and portions of the city in New York City!  Not somewhere you would think tornadoes would touchdown being near water and as far north as it is.

One of the tornadoes were reported in Breezy Point which is part of Queens and the other tornado was spotted in East New York in the Kings (Brooklyn) area.

But wait a second, this can't be!  Tornadoes in New York City have got to be cinematic or mistaken!  Well, they are cinematic!  In 2008, this movie came out when the global warming talk was the hot topic and New York City, being the largest city in the U.S., is always feared to be the deadliest target.


Tornadoes in New York City are also very realistic as we saw on Sept. 8, 2012, but how common are tornadoes in New York City?  Since tornado records have began in 1950, there has only been about a dozen tornadoes to strike The Big Apple.  In 1985, an F1 tornado struck the Queens area that injured 6 people.  In 1990, an F0 tornado struck Staten Island that injured 3 people and another tornado in 1995 touchdown in Staten Island causing no injuries or fatalities.  Also in 1995, an F0 tornado touched down in the Manhattan area causing about $30,000 in damage and injured 1 person.  Those are just some of the detailed tornadoes that were recorded.  Here is a map of all the tornadoes that occurred in New York City from 1950-2011.

A total of 10 tornadoes have been reported within 1950-2011.  Now 2 more can be added to that from this year and one that isn't even shown on the previous map from 1995 making 13 tornadoes have touched down in The Big Apple over a 63-year period with the strongest of those being an F2 on the old Fujita Scale.  One of the two new ones can be added to the Brooklyn area and the other in the Queens area.  Staten Island has experienced 4 tornadoes, Brooklyn has experience 3 tornadoes (one of those originating over Staten Island), Queens has experienced 4 tornadoes, The Bronx has experience 2 (one of those originated over Bergen County, NJ), and Manhattan has experienced 1.

So now the ultimate question, are tornadoes in New York City rare or common?  Neither.  On average, a tornado will touchdown in the New York City area once every 5 years.  Tornadoes in NYC are fairly uncommon.

Appearances Aren't Everything

We have all heard the saying "Don't judge a book by its cover" over and over again.  That holds a lot of truth to it in more ways than one.  The cover of a book could be bland and boring looking, but the story inside it could be the most adventurous story ever.  Someone could look like the Rocky Dennis kid from Mask, but have a heart of gold.  You get what I am saying.  This also goes with hurricanes and tornadoes as well!  Tornadoes are a little harder to see whether their size matches their strength or not so we are not going to focus on them.  As for hurricanes,  these are far more easier to portray this saying with.  Normally when we see a big hurricane we think of this:


If you guessed that this was Katrina then you are right!  This was Hurricane Katrina at her peak as a category 5.  Big and scary isn't it?  Let's go to some more recent storms to two of them in the Atlantic in 2012, hurricanes Leslie and Michael.


Courteous of the National Hurricane Center is a visible image of Hurricane Leslie (left) and Hurricane Michael (right).  Hurricane Leslie is a pretty big storm so she has got to be a strong storm and Hurricane Michael is really small compared to Hurricane Leslie so it must be weaker than her right?  Think again!  When this image was taken, Hurricane Leslie was a weak category 1 hurricane with max winds of 75 MPH.  Hurricane Michael, however, is a category 3 hurricane with max winds of 115 MPH!  Crazy huh?  Technically, it is because neither are in the best environment, esp. Michael, to be strong storms.  But for the most part, it isn't all that crazy.  Look at Leslie and look at Michael.  Leslie might be a large storm, but it has a lot of gaps in the clouds indicating dry air is keeping it from strengthening much.  Michael, on the other hand, is really small, but a classic structure with no gaps or even a hint of dry air near the center.

So, appearances aren't everything as proven here and this also proves that sometimes size doesn't matter.  It's simply a matter of what isn't seen with the naked eye.

To add some information on Hurricane Michael, it is the first major hurricane and category 3 hurricane of the 2012 hurricane season.

What Would Happen... Caribbean Islands

We are all used to the Caribbean Islands being where they are because we have not seen them in any other form.  All the islands from Cuba to the Windward and Leeward Islands are all part of the Caribbean Island chain.  As beautiful and wonderful of a vacation spot these islands are they are more significant than what really imagine.  Far more than agriculture, cigars, aquaculture, etc.  What if the Caribbean Islands went from this: 

To something like this?

Doesn't look right does it?  It doesn't look like it would change things much really except no more Caribbean cruises and all that goes with it.  Think a little harder.

Think about Hurricane Isaac that made landfall in Plaquemines Parish, LA.  It was a category 1 hurricane when it made landfall over Louisiana and a tropical storm when it passed Key West, FL.  Here is the entire track of Isaac.

It traveled beside Espanola and Cuba which have mountain ranges over 5,000 ft. high.  What if they weren't there?  Isaac would have most likely strengthened into a major hurricane and curved where the Bahamas are and went back out to sea possibly grazing The Outer Banks of North Carolina.  But this is only one example.      Without the islands being there in the Caribbean, tropical storms in the Atlantic would reach major hurricanes (categories 3-5) more frequently than they do now and would cause more devastation to the U.S. than they have as we know it to this day because there are not landmasses to weaken them.

So next time you see another tropical storm or take a vacation in the Caribbeans, remember how wonderful these islands are.  They are actually saving lives and money every year by weakening tropical systems and preventing them from reaching their full potential.

A New Beginning!

The blog has been down for a while and it has seemed like it has been out.  Well, it's back and with bigger and better changes!  Starting this month, there should be about 5 blogs every week.  One for each week day.  Also, a new story will be started this month called "What Would Happen..." that will depict various "what-if" scenarios that would affect the United States.  This is only the tip of the iceberg.

Check up on us every week for the newest, latest, and biggest stories in the world of the weather!

Joplin, Missouri One Year Anniversary

May 22nd, 2012 marks the 1 year anniversary of the horrific EF-5 tornado that completely devastated the town.



What we once knew as a beautiful and peaceful town that has been known for tornadoes passing by was hit by a tornado that will never be forgotten.  Not only the lives of the Joplin residents were changed forever, but even the people around the nation were changed.  Images and videos were seen of a portion of a town that looked like a war zone where houses were no longer standing and in complete rumble, trees completely stripped of their leaves, bark, and most limbs, large buildings built with concrete were cracked and shifted.  This was as chilling to see as what the people in Tuscaloosa saw.  The track of the tornado was short, but the damage path was very wide.



Among the aftermath of the wreckage, the lives of Joplin residence were not only changed because of the loss of their belongings, but the loss of the estimated 160 lives that were taken away that day.  The 7th deadliest tornado in U.S. history changed the lives of the people who were involved with the deaths.

People look back a year ago on what happened and where their lives are now.  High school students graduated on the 1 year anniversary of the tornado and were all able to meet President Obama who gave the commencement address.  Even with the destruction of the high school, students, families, and friends did not lose hope on recovery and neither did Someone special and powerful above us.  The sign of that was left on the schools sign.  One sign around the school was left with "OP HIGH SCHOOL".  The J, L, I, and N were ripped off the sign, but all that was needed was the O and the P because with those it helped spell what the town was feeling.



Although the town continues to rebuild and recover after the tornado, they will never forgot the things they saw.

April 27, 2011 Part 2: Forecast Accuracy

As we reflect on such a historic day we should thank the people from the Storm Prediction Center, National Weather Service, and local TV station meteorologists for forecasting this event days ahead.  This event was forecast very well from all these people and myself included.  The Storm Prediction Center highlighted the areas that were heavily impacted by this event 5 days prior to the event.  

The purple area remained highlighted with a Moderate Risk on Day 3 with an exceptionally high percentage of severe weather risk for a Day 3 Moderate Risk outlook.  The 45% purple shaded area is the area where the Moderate Risk was highlighted.

On the day of the event, a High Risk was issued as of 1:00 AM CDT (0600Z) with a high 30% chance of tornadoes over northern Alabama.  This time is close to the first round of storms that hit the area, but these were not the worst.  As the day progressed the atmosphere became highly unstable and favorable for a major outbreak as already highlighted that morning.  At 11:30 AM CDT (1630Z), Storm Prediction Center had a High Risk with a 30% chance of tornadoes and embedded in the High Risk was a small area of 45% chance of tornadoes.  Shortly before Storm Prediction Center updated the risk they issued a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch for all of Mississippi except for extreme southern counties.  This will be compared to my forecast for 1:00 PM CDT (1800Z) that I made on that day before the event began to unfold and what verified.

At the time I was forecasting the areas that will likely be hit the hardest, Storm Prediction Center issued a PDS for most of Alabama except for southeastern portions and extreme southwestern portions of the state.  What was most shocking for me is that when the Storm Prediction Center issued this I just finished highlighting a High Risk with the likely hood of a PDS Tornado Watch for central and northern Alabama and central Tennessee.  After I have posted my forecast, the Storm Prediction Center updated their severe weather outlook at 3:00 PM CDT (2000Z).  The High Risk with the high probability of tornadoes stayed over the same location.  Following the update, they issued a PDS Tornado Watch for central and eastern Tennessee.  I will compare the Storm Prediction Center's 2000Z severe weather outlook with my 4:00 PM CDT (2100Z) outlook and what verified.  

The last severe weather outlook for April 27, 2011 that Storm Prediction Center issued was at 8:00 PM CDT (0100Z).  The High Risk area has now been shifted over to northeastern Alabama and extreme northwest Georgia with a 30% chance of tornadoes.  My forecast was for 7:00 PM CDT (0000Z) with a High Risk bigger than the Storm Prediction Center had and over the same general areas, but included western portions of South Carolina and North Carolina and a small portion of southeast Tennessee where Chattanooga is.  Here is a comparison between the two with a verification.  

When I highlighted the High Risk area for my forecast I anticipated another PDS Tornado Watch to be issued.  Scary enough, about 6 hours and 10 minutes after I have posted my forecast, the Storm Prediction Center issued a PDS Tornado Watch at 6:50 PM CDT which is just 10 minutes before the time I forecast it would show up.

After the 27th, tornadoes kept on developing in The Carolinas up into the New England area, but were much weaker than what was experienced in Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia.

It was horrifying to see how much the forecast models agreed that this day, one year ago, all the ingredients were going to come together for a tremendous outbreak.  It was scary to me when forecasting for this event and realizing how bad it will be, but I am proud of how well I was able to forecast for this event.  We should all be proud with such great lead time there was to warn the public because it could have been worse.  God bless all of those who were affected by this event.

April 27, 2011 Part 1: Unforgotten Memories

It has been one full year since this event happened and since we saw James Spann in a way we haven't seen him before.  April 27, 2011 is a day that no one in the Southeast will ever forget with all that was lost and with all of the unity that happened afterwards with people helping each other out.  Homes and businesses were demolished beyond recognition, lives were lost and forever changed, possessions and dreams were lost and crushed.  After a span of one year the pieces of peoples lives are still in the process of being picked up, but so much has been accomplished since that day last year.  Clouds and even the chance of some showers scatter themselves over the Southeast, but no signs or chances of anything severe to stop the clean-up.

The National Weather Service for 16 offices, Shreveport, LA; Jackson, MS; Memphis, TN; Mobile, AL; Birmingham, AL; Huntsville, AL; Nashville, TN; Morristown, TN; Peachtree City, GA; Wilmington, OH; Greenville-Spartanburg, SC; Blacksburg, VA; Louisville, KY; Wakefield, VA; Baltimore-Washington; and State College, PA, commemorate this day in history on how it affected each one of them.  Here is a map of all the tornadoes that touched down in Alabama.   

Here is another image of a wider view of the Southeast region with all the tornado touchdowns.  

This is something not only the people who were affected by this will remember, but our planet will remember for a while as the tornadoes left what are known as tornado scars on the ground.  

This is an image that shows the damage path with regards to vegetation.  Where you see area's of aqua are areas of no vegetation.  It is clear to see the tornado paths of the EF-4 that went between Jasper and Cordova (top tornado path), the EF-4 Tuscaloosa and Birmingham tornado (middle tornado path), and the EF-3 that went through Sawyerville and Eoline (bottom tornado path).

City Forecast Discussion: Lincoln, NE

Does this look familiar NCAA football fans?  The Division 1 Cornhusker fans sure do recognize this because this is their Memorial Stadium with the Tom Osborne Field and a "Sea of Red".  Located in the Great Plains city of Lincoln, the capital of Nebraska.  A stadium that holds over 80,000 people located in a city with a population over 258,000, over 7% of Nebraska's total population, creates a big attraction towards football fans and severe weather?  Yep!  Lincoln is in Tornado Alley and is not unfamiliar to severe weather and tornadoes.  The challenge lays in forecasting the weather for Lincoln to warn the public about events like these.  Lincoln is quite familiar with extreme heat and cold being in the Great Plains.  However, neither were a problem during the forecasting period as high temperatures only reached around 80 a few times.  The 60's was a comfort zone for the highs as more than half of the days reach a high in the 60's.  The lows had as much of a wide spread as the highs did where one day it hit 38 degrees.  Most of the time it liked to linger around 50.  The best way to describe each day by winds is "windy".  The lowest wind that was dealt with was 16 mph while the highest was 27 mph.  So the winds like to stay around 20 mph which is never good if you just got your hair done and want it to stay perfect.  The precipitation for the area is one of those things where you just want to say "forget about it" because models can forecast for rain to fall and not even a drop will fall at the Lincoln Airport.  This happened twice during the forecast period and it rained all around the airport, but not on it.

So, forecasting for a specific point in Lincoln, Nebraska is a hard challenge given the wide range in temperatures, varying winds, and precipitation that may or may not fall at your location, but maybe a mile down the road.  With that said, that leads me to the final city which is a tournament city for The Weather Challenge competition.  This city has a similar name to the largest city in Kansas, but is located in The Lone Star State next to the Red River.  Named after a five-foot waterfall on a river that was in the city, before being destroyed by a flood in 1886, and has had two devastating tornadoes, one in 1964 and the other in 1979.  Can you guess this Choctaw Indian settlement?

A Blast In The Past of Easter Sunday

Easter Sunday is a joyous day to celebrate with your family and your church with Easter egg hunts and Easter dinners.


Easter has a fascinating history not only religiously, but also meteorologically.  The weather always plays a part in every holiday where people get together for celebrations.  Today has been fairly inactive in the weather except around Anderson County, TX where hail was reported, but for the most part it has been a great day to be outside.  It hasn't always been that way though.  There has been a number of tornado outbreaks during the past years of Easter as well as tropical systems and winter weather events.  One of the earliest found tornado events that occurred on Easter was the Easter Weekend 1913 Tornado Outbreak Sequence that began March 20th and ended March 24th.  In 1913, Easter landed on March 23rd.  The number of deaths and injuries have mixed results depending on where you look, but what is known is that two deadly tornadoes did occur.  One hit Omaha, Nebraska and another hit Terre Haute, Indiana.  Both occurred on Easter Sunday.  The most devastating of the two was the Omaha tornado that was rated an F4 where about 150 people perished and hundreds more were injured.  What made matters worse was a passing cold front that brought snow to the area after the tornado passed through.  The same storm that created the tornado later started a huge dust storm that overwhelmed Topeka, Kansas.  The Terre Haute tornado happened later that night causing about 50 deaths.  To give you an idea on what the tornado looked like that devastated Omaha, here is an image: .
On April 21, 1957, there was an Easter Sunday outbreak of tornadoes that became known as the 1957 Lubbock Tornado Outbreak that spawned an unknown number of tornadoes, but some of these tornadoes were fairly large.  Not much information, if any, are known on how strong these tornadoes were partly because they traveled through rural areas where few people lived.  Luckily, there were no fatalities and the number of injuries were low.  Little was known on this event to the public until a guy named Jonathan D. Finch did a case study on this event with great details on the tornadoes and the atmospheric setup.  He shows how unique this event was because unlike most tornadoes traveling from southwest to northeast, these tornadoes traveled from southeast to northwest.  Here is an image of one of the tornadoes on his case study website from a newspaper article:

In 2006, there was yet another Easter tornado outbreak known as the Easter Week 2006 Tornado Outbreak Sequence.  This event started on April 13th and ended April 18th dropping 54 tornadoes, the strongest being an F2.  On Easter Sunday, which was April 16th, there were 14 determined tornadoes, 2 of which were F2, 3 were F1, and the remaining 9 were F0.  Throughout the whole event, there was only 1 fatality, but none occurred on Easter.
The most recent tornado outbreak that occurred during Easter was the April 19-24, 2011 Tornado Outbreak Sequence where at least 89 tornadoes were confirmed and the strongest of them was an EF4.  The last day of the event, April 24th, was Easter Sunday and only 11 tornadoes occurred on that day.  The strongest on Easter was an EF1 that caused some damage in Arkansas.  There were no fatalities during this entire event.

So far Easter seems to be the holiday where tornadoes love to interrupt.  However, there are other memorable weather events that have occurred on Easter that are not as devastating as tornadoes are.  Winter likes to make an entrance sometimes on Easter and one of those events was way back in 1929 when there was a large amount of snow that fell in the Midwest region of the U.S.  Not many other snowy or rainy weather events have been recorded on Easter, but the National Weather Service of La Crosse, Wisconsin was generous enough to post a number of Easter weather events that involved their coverage area.  If you would like to view more of these events here is the link: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=arx&storyid=8052&source=0.

There is another force of nature that has shown up a few times around Easter and that is tropical systems.  Looking as far back as 1846, there were 3 tropical systems that developed on Easter Sunday.  One of them were uncertain because of it being in 1846 and little knowledge was known about tropical cyclones, but there is belief that one made landfall in the Southern Mississippi Valley creating a lot of flooding.  During the 1973 Atlantic Hurricane Season there was a tropical depression that developed on Easter Sunday on April 22nd that created no threat as far as recorded history goes.  Finally, during the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season there was Subtropical Storm Ana that developed on Easter Sunday April 20th.  It later made landfall in Bermuda followed by Florida where only 2 fatalities were reported that were caused from the subtropical storm.

Compelling weather history for Easter isn't it?  Easter is a unique holiday in the first place because it doesn't occur on the same numbered day as other holidays like Christmas or Thanksgiving.  It is always in March or April on a Sunday, but the number of the day changes every year.  Another interesting fact pertaining to Easter is the island that these guys have been resting on for thousands of years.

That's right!  Easter Island Heads or their correct name "moai".  The island that these famous statues have been sitting on was named Easter Island because a Dutch explorer named Jacob Roggeveen encountered this island on Easter Sunday in 1722 which was on April 5th.

Happy Easter everyone!!!

City Forecast Discussion: Hilo, Hawaii

Ain't this a beautiful sight.  Blue ocean, mountains in the background, and a gorgeous coast line in the tropics. Hilo is a spectacular vacation location that has a nearly predictable temperature due to it's tropical location.  Rain is a common appearance as well as breezy conditions.  So what were some of the forecast challenges?  One thing that wasn't much of a challenge was the high and low.  For the two weeks forecasting for Hilo the high ranged from 76 F to 81 F and the low ranged from 62 F to 67 F.  Small range in temperature so being a degree or two off is fairly common.  The wind was just slightly more challenging than the temperature because depending on which direction it came from it could be as strong as over 25 mph sustained or as low as 10 mph.  If it came from a northerly direction it would be coming off the ocean and most likely be breezy, but if it were to be more from the land then it could be light because of surface friction from the trees and buildings.  The challenging part for Hilo was the precipitation.  Being in a tropical location you would expect at least a little bit of rain every day with some days having a lot of it and that is true, but it is all location dependent.  The precise location that was being forecast for was the western side of the Hilo International Airport.  So, if it rained on the eastern side of the airport or on the western portion of Hilo then it doesn't count toward the contest.  The other important factor to keep in mind, other than location, is the amount of precipitation.  It could be a light shower and get just a tiny bit of rain or a thunderstorm and get over an inch.  As a matter of fact, Hawaii experienced its largest hailstone during this time period of forecasting for Hilo when Oahu experienced a storm that dropped grapefruit-size hail that measured up to 4.25 inches long.  Check out how big this thing was: 

The next location is far from the tropics and is in the great Tornado Alley.  This "Star City" is home to a large group of huskers and was originally named Lancaster, but was changed due to the assassination of the 16th president of the U.S.  Think real hard.