Thursday/Friday Winter Weather Event

We have reached another week with some more wintry weather, but this time it's more about the precipitation than very cold temperatures.  The jet stream is once again near the Gulf Coast, but further north than last time when snow was forecasted for the Southeast.  This will help direct low pressure systems to move towards the Southeast and come close to the Gulf Coast and move off into the Atlantic Ocean.  The southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama will not experience any wintry precipitation, but the central portions of the states have a chance of wintry precip. and the northern portions have a much better chance for snow.  The most northern counties of MS are already under a winter weather advisory which is already forecasting for the possibility of 1 to 2 inches of snow to accumulate.  For that to really happen there will have to be a lot of snow falling and very cold temperatures to really cool the ground enough for the snow to stick and accumulate.  According to Jackson NWS, the central portions of MS are going to see a wintry mix that is rain changing into sleet and then snow.  According to Birmingham NWS, the snowfall line is alonge I-85 towards Montgomery and westward with the accumulation line to be from I-20 and northward.

There is a lot that is forecasted, but a lot of uncertainty to it as well.  After looking at various forecast models the winter event isn't looking to be all that it is being hyped up to be.  All that is needed to make this event to be a reasonable winter event isn't adding up.  Both the GFS and NAM/WRF are all agreeing that the moisture is there, but not for snow.  The precip is ahead of the freezing temperature line in the atmosphere and at the surface.  What little moisture near the surface that remains at freezing and below does not last long and is mainly focused for the northern counties of MS and AL.  The amount of wintry precip. looks to be very little.  NOAA, which does pretty good for forecasting, agrees for the most part that the frozen precip. is going to stay north of Highway 85 in MS and AL and north of I-20.  NOAA does however show some possibility that between midnight on Thursday to 7am Friday morning that a wintry precip. could reach into the central portions of MS and AL.  If that is the case then any sort of frozen precip. that falls in those regions will not last long and will not create any trouble for peoples travels on Friday morning.  The reason for a lot of this is because of the warm temperatures that have been seen across the Southeast.  Temps in the upper 40's and low- to mid-50's in northern and central parts of MS and AL for the past several days will definitely prohibit accumulation of any wintry precip.  Although the temperatures will fall below freezing from Thursday night into Friday morning it will not make much difference with the actual ground temperature.

Overall, This is looking to be more of a snow event for the Tennessee River Valley areas and a rain event souther from there.  Another blog will be introduced for further updates about the upcoming winter event.