Monday, January 24, 2011

Tuesday/Wednesday Winter Weather Event Forecast

Last week the big talk was what will happen today and Tuesday. As today arrived, the days and times of this winter event has changed and moved into Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. That being said, the main focus will be on the details of the winter event, as of right now, and a brief forecast for the rest of the week for the Southeast.

Since today, Monday, is almost over, the high and low will not matter now and will focus on what will happen for the rest of today. The skies will remain mostly cloudy for MS, AL, and TN and becoming partly cloudy in GA. As the day comes closer to an end, cloudy skies will be moving into MS and gradually moving into MS and TN. Rain will be moving into southwest MS and continuing to move towards the NE eventually covering southern and central MS and southwest AL.

Tuesday is when all of the weather fun starts. Rain will be scattered all over MS and AL around mid-morning when everyone is getting up to go to work and school. It will remain as a moderate rain throughout the day. The rain will start to move out of southern MS and AL by 7pm as it continues to move towards the northeast. Some wintry precip will likely start falling in northern MS as the day comes to an end. TN will likely start off by seeing mixed precip throughout the morning, turn into rain in the afternoon, and turn back into mixed precip in the evening to the late night hours. GA will begin to see statewide scattered showers in the late morning hours and will continue throught the rest of the day. The extreme northern portions of GA will likely see some mix precip. esp. in higher elevations. MS will see a high ranging from the low 40's in the far northwest corner of the state to the mid 50's along the coast with a low ranging from the low 30's in the northwest corner to the low 40's along the coast. AL will see a high ranging from the upper 40's in the extreme northeast corner of the state to the mid 50's along the coast and a low ranging from the mid 30's in the northern part of the state to the mid 40's in some central parts like Montgomery and along the coast. TN will see a high ranging from the low 40's along the Mississippi River to the mid-to-upper 40's along the AL border and along I-75 to the northeast cornere of the state and a low ranging from the low 20's in the extreme northeast part of the state around Bristol to the mid 30's along the MS border. GA will see a low ranging from the upper 20's in the extreme northern counties of the state to the upper 40's along the GA coast and a high ranging from the upper 30's in the northern counties in higher elevation to the mid-to-upper 60's in the extreme southeast part of the state.

Wednesday will be the day of Southeastern wintry precip.  This is the important and yet tricky part of the forecast because of the timing.  Here are some good estimate timings of the wintry precip. from beginning to end: central and northern MS - between 9pm Tues. to 9am Wed.; central and northern AL - between 2am Wed. to12pm Wed.; TN - 3pm Tues. to 3am Wed. for western TN, between 3am Wed. to 12pm Wed. for central TN, and between 3am to 9pm for eastern TN (depending on elevation where orographic lifting will extend the length of time); northern GA - 12pm Wed. to 6pm Wed. for northern GA.  Now keep in mind these are estimated times based upon current model forecasts.  The times prior the wintry precip will be all rain.  Now on to the temperatures.  The lows in MS will range from the upper 20's in the extreme northwest corner of the state to near 40 degrees F along the coast and highs will range from near 40 degrees F in the northern parts of the state to the mid 50's along the coast.  The lows for AL will range from the low 30's in the northern part of the state to the low 40's in the extreme southeast and coastal locations like Dauphin Island, Orange Beach, and Gulf Shores and highs will range from the low 40's in the norther part of the state and upper 30's for the higher elevations in the extreme northeast and mid 50's along the coast.  The lows for TN will range from mid 20's in the western part of the state to the low 30's in the southeastern part of the state (which will happen near midnight of Wednesday) and highs will range from the mid 30's in the northwestern part of the state to the low-to-mid 40's in the eastern part of the state.  Finally, the lows for GA will range from upper 20's/lower 30's in the northern part of the state to the mid-to-upper 40's in the southwestern part of the state and along the coastal edges of the state such as Tybee Island and the highs will range from the low 40's in the northern part of the state to the mid 60's along the extreme southeastern part of the state.

That pretty much concludes my forecast discussion for this winter event with great detail of the Southeast.  I will update this Tuesday Jan. 25th for further updates.  If you would like to have more details about a certain location and/or state then please let me know and I will gladly supply you with the information you want.

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