February 3-4 Southern Winter Storm Event

The South is now under the gun of a winter storm event.  It will be nothing like the one a few days ago that completely shut down cities from Oklahoma through Illinois, but for the south it doesn't have to be anything like that to shut us down.  There is a winter storm warning stretching from Brownsville, TX all the way to Tupelo, MS and even some northern counties in AL.  It stretches all along the Texas coast and goes as far inland as Bryan, TX and Lukin, TX.  Here is an image to show where it's at and what else going on. 

This is what is going on currently.  If you would like to follow it then use this link http://www.weather.gov/.  This storm system has been kept out of the "hype" of the media and weather associations which could or could not mean something.  What has caused this phenomena to come so far south is the upper level trough in the upper atmosphere.  It has pushed passed El Paso, TX and Del Rio, TX into Mexico with a lot of cold, Arctic air and is moving air towards the northeast where the Southeast states are.  Now this doesn't mean much unless we have something there to give it meaning.  In this case, we do have a lot going on that makes this important and the biggest part of that is below freezing temperatures.  The main focus for us when it comes to the weather it what is closer to the surface.  The interesting thing about this system is that the below freezing temperatures are north of most of the moisture and precipitation in the mid levels of the atmosphere and yet a lot of locations are reporting freezing rain and sleet.  This automatically dictates that the reason why this type of precip falling is because of a thin layer of below freezing temps that are freezing it either on the ground or before contact on the ground.  But right now is not as important as 6, 12, or even 18 hours from now.  Looking at a few models that can be handy in forecasting they are showing some interesting information.  The NAM is showing the heaviest of the precip is going to come through 3 AM to 12 PM CST for Mississippi and Louisiana.  It will leave Alabama around 6 AM CST Saturday morning and Georgia later than that.  The GFS, another model, is agreeing with the NAM to a point.  The GFS shows more intense precip before those time periods and heavier precip in Alabama and Georgia.  I could show you some images, but I like to keep it in a way where everyone can understand this and not some.

Keep in mind that from this point on until the late morning hours conditions will continue to deteriorate from Texas to Mississippi.  Ice accumuluations are most likely to average around a quarter of an inch in southern and central Mississippi, central and northern Louisiana, eastern Texas, western and central Tennessee, and central Alabama.  Some places could reach to higher accumuluations up to nearly a half of an inch.  A quarter of an inch already paralyzes a city/town, but more than that could really cripple one with large power outages.  Snow accumulation from this system will be in southeast central and southern Texas, northern Louisiana, southern and southeastern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi.  Accumulations of snow would be light but a maximum measurement of 3 to 4 inches primarily in Texas.  Smaller amounts in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana and even smaller amounts in northern Mississippi and western and central Tennessee.

This is all a forecast as detailed as can be with as much accuracy as possible.  The weather is like a body of water and it always changes so things could be worse or they could be better.  Time will tell in this kind of situation esp. in the southern states, which are harder to predict for wintry weather than the northern states.  If you have an y requests or questions or concerns please notify me and I will do all that I can to answer and/or clarify anything.  Please remain indoors as bridges and over passes have ice on them and will continue to freeze throughout the night and roads will likely become in bas conditions.  If you have to travel, go slow, pace yourself, keep your distance from other drivers, and be safe.