Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Southern Winter Event February 9-10, 2011

The Southeast is staring down another snow event that seems more promising of having a decent amount of snow to accumulate.  Giving the fact that below freezing temperatures have been reached every night for a while it is likely that snow will accumulate instead of melt.  I will give you a breakdown of all that will take in effect with this event and give you a better idea on whether the amount of snow forecasted will happen or not.  First, I will show the current watches and warnings for the U.S.  This image displays watches, warnings, statements and advisories issued by the National Weather Service

Now I will show you forecasts from various National Weather Services.  I will only keep this to a small area for time and space.  Here is what Jackson, MS is saying for central MS.  Snow Potential - Click for more information.

The snow forecast from Birmingham, AL for central AL.  Snow Potential - Click for more information.

The snow forecast from Huntsville, AL for nothern AL. 
Total Snowfall - Click for more information.
Snow forecast from Nashville, TN for central TN.  This one was strange.  Wednesday Snow - Click for more information.
Finally, snow forecast from Memphis, TN for western TN, northeastern Arkansas, and northern MS. 
Looking at all of these could create some complications because end at certain county lines and if you live on a county line where one NWS says you will get a certain amount of snow and the other that is close to you says something else then it can be confusing.  For example, Starkville, MS, home of MSU, shows an accumulation from Jackson to be 2-3 inches.  From nearby Memphis NWS viewing area it looks like Starkville could get 2-4 inches.  Then nearby Birmingham NWS viewing area shows that Starkville could get 1.5-3 inches.  Three different amounts from three nearby National Weather Services.  The safe bet would to take the lowest and the highest and there is your range of snow accumulation.  For Starkville, 1.5-4 inches.
Now to go into the science part of the possible snow accumulation.  Currently there are below freezing temperatures for most of the Southeast up to about 16,000 ft. in the atmosphere except for northern AL, MS and all of TN.  The NAM, a forecast model, shows the air becoming colder and colder as we continue through Wednesday and by the time the moisture gets to the Southeast the air will be around freezing and continue dropping giving the Southeast a better chance of snow.  The precipitation should start falling between 12pm and 6pm for all of MS and will continue to move towards the east from there.  Between these times the northern half of MS will see snow and the southern half will see rain mainly.  The same situation stands for AL, but at a later time, between 6pm and midnight.  The snow will leave MS by 6am Thursday morning and AL by 12pm on Thursday.  All times are central time.  Keep in mind this is only one forecast model and models only give you ideas on how things will go.  Now for the GFS.  The GFS, interestingly, holds the same idea as the NAM which doesn't happen very often.  What's even more unique is that the HRW, another forecast model, agrees as well with the timing.  The amount is the tricky part.  From the HRW, the MS, Arkansas, and LA border near Greenville could see no more than 4 inches and the amounts go down from there to the extreme northeastern part of MS where they could see up to an inch.  The HRW doesn't go far enough to figure out the totals for AL and TN.  The NAM shows as much as 3 inches for all of central MS to northern MS, no more than 3 inches for all AL except east central AL which could see up to an inch and all of central and western TN could see up to 2 inches with the except for the northwest part where an inch could be seen.  The GFS shows that central MS could see up to 2 inches and as little as a half of an inch in the northeastern part of the state, central and nothern AL could see between 0.5 inches of snow to an inch, and most of central and western TN could see around an inch.  Given these possible outcomes, the GFS seems to be underestimating the amount of snow, but once again these are just models to give people an idea of what might happen.  With all the models put together, MS could see between 0.5 to 4 inches, AL could see between 0.5 to 3 inches, and TN could see between 0.5 to 2 inches.
This is an overall breakdown and synopsis of what is going on and the possible outcomes of the whole event for MS, TN, and AL.  The forecast can always change because the event hasn't occured yet for those areas, but this is a good estimate.  I will keep you posted and updated for any further changes.  If you want any details about a specific location, for timing, or anything else let me know and I will provide it to you.

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