Wild Wicked Wednesday

It has been a while since there has been a tornado event in the U.S.  Well two weeks to be more approximate, but things have been fairly quiet in that time period, other than the flooding of the Mississippi River and other rivers connected to it, until now.  If you remember, in April, most of the tornadoes were in the well known Dixie Alley, another part of the true Tornado Alley area.  That's very typical for the month of April, but now it is May and things have flip-flopped.

Yes, those are literally lightning flip flops.  We will start to see an increase in tornadic activity in the Great Plains now than in the Southeast like in April.  So what kind of weather should we look forward to today and how bad is it going to get?  Here is my forecast from 18Z (1:00 PM CDT) to 06Z (1:00 AM CDT).

The red areas indicate areas of moderate risks of tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail.  The reason so is because these areas have the most instability and lifting out of all with a significant amount of moisture.  The outlined black oval in eastern Oklahoma could potentially have a higher risk of severe weather and a likely area of significant severe weather.  Reason being is where the higher CAPE and lowest CIN line up along with other important variables.  The moderate risk areas already have severe thunderstorm watch areas in them.  The area of potential increased risk would be a likely area of a future tornado watch.

Now at this time things start to look more interesting.  Now I have issued some areas of high risk because upper-level lifting, mid-level lifting, low-level lifting, abundant moisture inflow, decent CAPE, low CIN, and warm air advection all stack on top of each other in the high risk areas giving a nearly perfect environment for severe weather and even significant severe weather.  The area between the two high risks I highlighted as a potentially increased risk because it does have a little higher CIN in that area which would inhibit some lifting, but if the lifting mechanizisms remain strong enough they will likely push through the low-level stability and create supercells.  Tornado watch boxes are expected in the high risk areas with the chance of them becoming a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation).

Things really start to cook in the Great Plains as the air becomes even more unstable around this time.  A larger span of high risk areas than before an still seeing the potential for and increased risk due to higher CIN values, but like I said before if the lifting mechanizisms are strong enough they will push through the low-level instability.  Expect a much larger area of tornado watches throughout this time period with some of those possibly being a PDS because of how well things line up for impressive supercell development to occur and create some significant weather.

Later in the evening and deeper into the night things start to calm down some.  No high risks now, but still keeping a good sized area of moderate risk and an area of potential increased risk.  Tornado watches are still highly likely in the area of possible increased risk, but the activity should be gradually dissipating and weakening.

Finally, in the very early hours there is a much smaller moderate risk area to watch out for as the air cools off from nighttime cooling and evaporation from the rain that will be falling throughout the day.

The state with the highest risk of severe weather and even significant severe weather would be Central and Eastern Oklahoma with other areas like Eastern and Northeaster Texas and Central Kansas will be other areas to focus in on too throughout the day.  Keep your eyes peeled if you are in or around these areas or know people in these areas.  Storm chasers be careful and stay alert.