The Final Countdown To The End

It is now the final countdown... for the rest of this storm system to pass on through the Southeast.  Did you think I was talking about the end of the world?  Earlier this morning there was a line of strong thunderstorms that pushed through the Southeast and caused quite a bit of ruckus and some damage.  But the ruckus and damage is not done yet as there is still a high risk for East-Northeast Mississippi, Central and Northern Alabama, extreme Southeast Tennessee, and extreme Northwest Georgia.  Storms are now beginning to rapidly intensify in western Mississippi and will continue to do so as the cold front and the storm system pushes eastward.  Here are my forecast areas of high and moderate risk at 18Z (1PM CDT), 21Z (4PM CDT), 00Z (7PM CDT), 03Z (10PM CDT), and 06Z (1AM CDT tomorrow morning).  Here is the 18Z forecast risk areas.

I expect a high risk to still stay in effect for the same general areas as mentioned earlier because all of the lifting mechanizisms and highest areas of instability are located in that general area which is where the highest risk of significant severe weather will occur.  Keep in mind that severe weather will occur in the moderate risk area as well too.  The 21Z forecast risk shows a similar scenario.

Now the high risk area has "sqeezed" itself in a more confined area and primarily centering over Northern AL, Central and Eastern TN, and Northwest GA.  Major cities to really keep an eye on around this time period are Birmingham, Huntsville, Chattanooga, and Nashville.  The area of high risk would be a likely area for a tornado watch to be issued and it could be considered as a PDS (Particular Dangerous Situation).  Continue monitoring Northern and Central Alabama for significant severe weather.  Another similar scenario will still be in affect at 00Z.

Still seeing a high risk area, but it is smaller and gradually diminishing away as the day wears off into the night.  The darker shade of red has no significant meaning to it, it's just an overlap of moderate risk areas.  Although, I will state that along the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Panhandle of Florida could be of interest at around this time because of a lot of CAPE, surface lifting, and high dewpoint values.  The area of high risk would be the most likely spot to see a tornado watch in the near future.  Things really start to look different at 03Z or around 10PM CDT tonight.

There is now only a moderate risk that spreads over a large area of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.  The reason why it is so big is because there is still a chance of severe weather, but it will likely be more spread out than what has been experienced so far.  Chances of significant severe weather is much lower around this time which is why there is not a high risk anywhere.  However, there is still the chance of tornadoes, strong winds, and hail throughout this risk area.  Finally, a risk area that is located completely different than all of the others before at 06Z.

The Southeast is going to be out of the moderate risk area finally with the Mid-Atlantic now going to be experiencing some severe weather.  A much smaller risk area because the system should be pushing off into the Atlantic Ocean leaving the highest risk to be from North Carolina to Pennsylvania.

Keep in mind that the shaded areas do not limit where severe weather will be.  It's more of a general area of where most of the severe weather will occur.  Stay safe and continue monitoring your local TV stations and your radio.