New Day, New Risk

Another day, another dollar!  Not exactly.  Today is looking to be more exciting than yesterday.  Although there was a tragic time period yesterday where a very strong, unrated tornado tore through Vilonia, AR and did incredible damage and took away some lives.  One of the most incredible damage reports about it was where the tornado scoured some of the road!  It takes a lot for a tornado to do that so it could be our first EF-5 of the year, but we will find out as surveyors scope out the area.  In the mean time, there are other areas that are now in the interest of severe weather.  I looked at 3 different times throughout today to analyze for areas of severe weather, which are 18Z (1:00 PM CDT), 00Z (7:00 PM CDT), and 06Z (1:00 AM CDT Wednesday morning).  Here is the 18Z:

Areas to watch out for this afternoon are circled in red and shows where the moderate risk for severe weather would occur.  I don't have percentages or which type of severe weather to expect, but I can tell you that the circle covering parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi has the highest probability of tornadoes, strong winds, and large hail than the other moderate risk circle does.  The other moderate risk area will likely have more wind and hail reports than tornadoes. 

Now for 00z:

At this time we are getting into the max heating of the day because the sun has not set yet and still adding heat to the surface after adding a lot already during its peak time.  There is a high risk now that covers mainly the Mississippi Delta, Southern Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana.  I anticipate the worst of the weather to occur around this time period with significant severe weather to occur in the high risk area.  The reason for it is because all of the variables needed for large, long-lasting tornadoes lineup all together for this kind of setup to happen.  Keep your eyes focused on this region as time gets closer to this period which this is at 7PM CDT so a time range from 3PM-9PM need to be monitored heavily.

Finally, 06Z:

At this time things should be calming down some because it's 1AM tomorrow morning and the air should be cooling off some and instability should be diminishing a little, but still keeping some instability to allow a moderate risk area to exist.  There is one small area to watch for that I didn't put a high risk on because that would be to rash, but the black circle indicates an area that the risk of severe weather could be a little bit higher than the risk surrounding it.  This area needs to be monitored just incase something significant does brew up there.  The reason for the possible increased risk is because that area could have everything it needs to spawn up tornadoes including decent CAPE values with small CIN values.

Remember to always be aware of severe weather around your area and when you are under a tornado warning please take cover as soon as possible and don't wait until you can see the tornado.