Tornado Outbreak Repeat?

Things have quiet down some since the last major tornado outbreak occured in the Southeast.  This isn't to say that there was no active weather in the U.S. because the Lambert-St. Louis International Airport shut down for a day.

No, this had nothing to deal with Samuel L. Jackson and snakes being on the planes, but because of a tornadot that reached EF-4 status and caused a lot of problems and damage.  The biggest concern now is the current setup of the weather that could possibly give us another major outbreak.  Before we go in-depth on the likelihood of the situation, let's recap on the last outbreak event.  Before, I mentioned of the number of tornadoes being 153 with 120 of those being confirmed and rated leaving 33 to be unrated.  After a week and a half of the event things are official and now tallied up.  There are still 153 tornadoes reported, but the number of each rated tornado intensity has changed.  These are the updated numbers now:

EF-0: 40

EF-1: 70
EF-2: 29
EF-3: 14

Clean up and picking up after the destruction has been the main focus after these passed 9-11 days, but should those people be concerned about this next storm system?  Let's find out!

Here is what's happening right now.

Now this is a double low system with a dryline.  These lows are attached to a stationary front that isn't wanting to budge at all which is why there has been so much flooding around Missouri, Illinois, and Kentucky.  It's setup right now is already creating somewhat of a scare as it's upper air setup seems very favorable for severe weather.  There is a moderate risk for today, tomorrow, and Wednesday for certain areas each day.  To save time, we will only look at the remaining risk areas for today.  Here is a 250mb for 00Z (7:00 PM CDT tonight) and 06Z (1:00 AM CDT tomorrow morning) that shows where the jet stream is forecasted to be.

The 00Z forecast is on the left and the 06Z is on the right.  The circled areas are areas of interest because that is where lifting would be found.  Now let's go a little lower in the atmosphere and see where some more lifting is likely to be by looking at the 500mb at these same times with 00Z on the left and 06Z on the right.

The circled areas indicate areas of lifting at the mid-levels.  If you notice, these circled areas do overlap each other in certain spots.  Let's go closer to the surface and see what else lines up with these areas.  Now we will look 850mb at the low-level jet and warm air advection.  First the low-level jet at 00Z on the left and 06Z on the right.

Now the warm air advection for the same times.

What the low-level jet helps us out with is where moisture and inflow is coming from in the low-levels of the atmosphere and can help initiate strong updrafts in thunderstorms if strong enough.  The LLJ is reaching winds of about 70 knots in some areas so there is forecasted significant lifting.  The warm air advection (WAA) is important for the same reasons.  Now, as for dewpoint values I'm not going to show you maps of that because that would be needful space used, but I can tell you that the Southeast, Ohio River Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southern Mississippi Valley have dewpoint temperatures between 60 and 70 degrees F and the actual air temperatures will range from 65 to 75 degrees F.

To conclude for today's event here is SPC's outlook for the rest of today (keep in mind this will change as they update the site throughout the rest of the evening).

Here are the most up-to-date storm reports from SPC. 

So far SPC has hit the moderate area right on the dot with the current observed storm reports, but these storms will continue to move eastward and northward.  Here is my version of the moderate risk area for the continuing round of storms for the rest of the day called SVRPROB.

This is just based upon the previous estimated areas from earlier.

So keep your eyes focused on this general area for severe weather for the remaining of the day and most likely into the early morning hours of Tuesday.